PREDIKSI PENCAPAIAN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDGs) KE 6 DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 2030 MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Sustainable development is a global agenda articulated through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with Goal 6 emphasizing the importance of universal access to adequate sanitation by 2030. This study aims to forecast sanitation coverage in Indonesia using historical data from 2013 to 2024. The Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method is applied due to its ability to effectively model linear trends in time series data without seasonal components. The Fitting and evaluation results indicate that most provinces exhibit a stable upward trend in sanitation access, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values below 20%, reflecting good model accuracy. Seven provinces are projected to achieve the 100% sanitation target by 2030, while several others are forecasted to remain below 85%. The study also identifies a negative correlation between sanitation access and open defecation (BABS) practices, with a correlation coefficient of -0.54. These research provide a strong foundation for evidence-based policymaking and targeted interventions to accelerate progress toward SDG Target 6.2 and to promote healthier behavioral change among the population.
Keywords: Improved sanitation, SDGs 6.2, Double Exponential Smoothing, Open Defecation (OD), Time series Forecasting