PREDIKSI HASIL PANEN PADI DENGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Studi Kasus Dinas Pertanian Kabupaten Sukabumi Jawa Barat)

Prediction of rice yields is very important for agricultural planning and decision making. The aim of this research is to create a model that can predict rice harvest yields in Sukabumi Regency, West Java, using Single Exponential Smoothing techniques. This research uses the Single Exponential Smoothing method because of its ability to handle time series data and make more accurate predictions by giving exponential weights to historical data. This research only uses primary data originating from the Sukabumi Regency Agriculture Service. The Single Exponential Smoothing method is used to create a prediction model from historical data on rice harvests. The research results show that, with a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, the Single Exponential Smoothing method can predict rice yields with a high level of accuracy. This prediction model allows adjustment of smoothing parameters to improve prediction accuracy. In this research, Single Exponential Smoothing is an effective method for predicting rice harvest yields in Sukabumi Regency. It is hoped that this research will help the Sukabumi District Agriculture Service plan and allocate resources more efficiently. This research also considered the use of additional variables and more sophisticated analysis methods when developing the prediction model.
Keywords: crop yield prediction, rice, exponential smoothing, Sukabumi Regency, time series data