PENERAPAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA PREDIKSI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

Analysis of global oil inflation trends in 2023 shows a continuous decline in demand throughout the period under discussion. This analysis shows that the global oil market is in a recovery phase after a period of shock. Factors such as energy policy, supply and demand dynamics and world economic conditions will play an important role in determining the progress of oil prices. From the forecasting results using the Exponential Smoothing method, it is considered better for predicting inflation values for the next period and is suitable for use. This method was chosen because it uses simpler calculations and because the data provisions used are relatively simple and not too complex compared to other similar methods. forecast results for the next period, namely January 2024 to December 2024 with predictions listed in the table. And it can be seen from the forecast results that the high inflation rate is in February - April 2024 at 5% and the predicted low inflation rate is in November 2024 at 2.82%. This single exponential smoothing forecasting method has a MAD error rate of 0.486, MSE of 0.428, and MAPE of 16.82%.

Keywords: Inflation, Exponential Shooting, World Oil