ANALISIS PERAMALAN JUMLAH ANGKA PERNIKAHAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

The downward trend in the marriage rate in Indonesia has been significant in the last decade. This study aims to analyze the forecasting of the number of marriages in Indonesia in 2024, then the impact of the decline and implement the Single Exponential Smoothing method and the Single Moving Average method as forecasting methods. Both methods are simple and effective techniques for forecasting future values based on historical data. These techniques facilitate calculations and are easy to implement and interpret. The research data was obtained from BPS Indonesia covering the period 2014-2023. Based on the research that has been done, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is the most effective method compared to the Single Moving Average method, because the Single Exponential Smoothing method is the method that produces the lowest error. By using Single Exponential Smoothing, the results of forecasting the number of marriages in Indonesia in 2024 are estimated at 1,590,500 with an MAD of 102,887.6, MSE of 12,786,320, and MAPE of 5.656%. Meanwhile, using the Single Moving Average method, the forecasting value of the number of marriages in Indonesia for 2024 is estimated at 1,641,302.0 with an MAD of 115,045.6, MSE of 17,720,240 and MAPE of 6.449%. Decreasing the marriage rate has a complex impact. The positive impact is an increase in the quality of Human Resources (HR) in Indonesia, which can push the country towards the status of a developed country and many young people begin to consider various things carefully, such as the fate of prospective children, the higher cost of living, the best education, and the welfare of life. However, the decline in marriage also brings negative impacts, such as a potential decline in population and population growth rate, as well as an increased risk of promiscuity and extramarital sex. Therefore, the government needs to take strategic steps to overcome these negative impacts, such as through counseling programs, education, and policies that support the institution of marriage.

Keywords: Forecasting, Single Exponential Smoothing, Marriage